San Diego Padres 2018 Top 50 Prospects

The Padres are likely still rebuilding in 2018 but with their current farm system it is looking like the process will yield results. They don’t have any prospects who are surefire, can’t miss studs but they are stocked with several very promising guys. Going into the 2018 season this system is right up there among the best, ranked 2nd overall with an A- grade right behind Atlanta according to BaseballHQ’s Minor League Baseball Analyst.  Five Padres prospects are in the MLB Pipeline Top 100 even though you have to scroll down to #25 to find the first one. The Padres window to compete could open in 2019 if a few of these guys perform near their ceiling and they could really make some noise in the NL West.

2017 Pre-season and midseason #13, Enyel De Los Santos is gone in a trade for Freddy Galvis, but that doesn’t do much to hurt the Padres depths in the minors and it should help improve the product on the field, which is important, even when rebuilding. In other transaction news, the Padres recently added OF Edward Olivares and RHP Jared Carkuff. You’ll find Olivares below and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if Carkuff appeared on this list in the near future. He’s had some good results, but he has neither a large body of work nor a great draft pedigree with his Round 35 selection.

And in case you’re wondering after you read my list… #52 Pedro Avila, #53 Hansel Rodriguez, #54 Michael Kelly, #55 Henry Henry, #56 Ty France, and #57 Cole Bellinger.


Prospects1500 Tiers:

Tier 1: Players with high expectations of both making the majors and playing at an All-Star level for a number of years
Tier 2: Players with an above average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor
Tier 3: Players with an average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor
Tier 4: Players who have the potential of making the majors, or have high likelihood of making the majors but providing minimal impact (e.g. middle reliever, low-ceiling UT guys)
Tier 5: Players who are worth keeping an eye on, but likely to never make a team’s 40-man roster






Tier 1
1. Cal Quantrill, RHP
Age: 22
2017 Highest Level: AA
2017 Mid-Season #1
MacKenzie Gore may have the higher ceiling but Quantrill makes up for that with the fact that he’s almost MLB ready. His Tommy John recovery appears to be well behind him and this could be the season he reaches the big leagues. That being said, they have no reason to rush him up there and could use 2018 to stretch him out and ensure he’s healthy for 2019 even if it looks like he’s ready.


2. Luis Urias, 2B/3B/SS
Age: 20
2017 Highest Level: AA, Arizona Fall League
2017 Mid-Season #3
Freddy Galvis may prevent us from seeing Urias next season, but the fact that he could be a fantasy impact a couple years ahead of Gore is why I bumped him up. Urias had a good showing in the fall league and Jose Altuve‘s 2017 season may help discourage people from being worried by Urias’ height.

 

3. MacKenzie Gore, RHP
Age: 18
2017 Highest Level: Rookie
2017 Mid-Season #2
Gore looked like a first rounder in his first professional season. He pitched 10 1/3 inning before he gave up his first run and that run was given up to his fellow Padre prospects in a AZL Padres 1 vs. AZL Padres 2 game. Gore didn’t give up any home runs and only allowed 3 extra base hits in his 21 1/3 innings.


Tier 2

4. Fernando Tatis Jr., 3B/SS
Age: 19
2017 Highest Level: AA
2017 Mid-Season #4
Now 19, Tatis looks to build on his 2017 campaign where he hit .278 and spent some time in Double-A. In September Keith Law tweeted:


This is interesting because Law seems to be going all-in on him in a sense.  Around this time last year Call to the Pen analyzed 6 sites who had published their Top 100 Prospects list and Tatis was only on Law’s where he was a solid #47. It will be interesting to see where those same outlets put him this year. Last February he was only #129 here at Prospects 1500 on our 2017 Overall Top 209.

5. Joey Lucchesi, LHP
Age: 24
2017 Highest Level: AA
2017 Mid-Season #7
I’m bumping up Lucchesi because he could very well start making an impact at the big league level this season. The 24-year-old sports a deceptive delivery and is a real pitcher, as opposed to simply being a thrower. His minor league WHIP is still under 1 and he’s 6’5″.

6. Adrian Morejon, LHP
Age: 18
2017 Highest Level: Rookie
2017 Mid-Season #4
Morejon grew up playing against the top level players in his age group from around the world as a member of Cuba’s National Teams. His stats weren’t amazing last season but that’s nothing to worry about yet.

7. Michel Baez,  RHP
Age: 21
2017 Mid-Season #6
After 63+ innings, Michel’s WHIP was a miniscule 0.832. He’ll be entering his Age 22 season this year so it’s likely they’ll try him out in Double-A and if he’s successful I can’t think of any reason he wouldn’t have a chance to break into the bigs this year. MLB Pipeline has his ETA at 2020. If he’s as good as he looks like he might be, why wait?

8. Eric Lauer, LHP
Age: 22
2017 Highest Level: AA
2017 Mid-Season #8
Lauer posted solid numbers in Double-A last season. He recorded 132 strikeouts in 122.2 innings while only giving up 3 home runs. He has a shot at reaching the bigs in 2018, but his real impact will likely begin in 2019.

Tier 3

9. Franchy Cordero, OF/1B
Age: 23
2017 Highest Level: MLB
2017 Mid-Season #10
In Triple-A, Franchy Cordero is a guy that you pay to watch play baseball. He hits home runs and he hits for average. His showing at the big league level has not been great so far, but…

10. Logan Allen, LHP
Age: 20
2017 Highest Level: A+
2017 Mid-Season #11
Allen has numbers that are very similar to Eric Lauer‘s, albeit at a lower level. I’d expect see him start the season in San Antonio with a decent shot at Triple-A.

11. Anderson Espinoza, RHP
Age: 19
2017 Highest Level: Did Not Play / A Ball in 2016
2017 Mid-Season #9
It is difficult for me to rank him higher than guys who are growing and advancing through the Padres system. Maybe I’m selling him short but until Espinoza is healthy and pitching he’ll slip in lists like these. The good news for him is lists like these do not matter at all to his potential and his career. If he comes back and starts progressing toward his ceiling the prospecting community will love him all over again.

12. Jeisson Rosario, OF
Age: 18
2017 Highest Level: Rookie
2017 Mid-Season #12
Last year Rosario proved he can hit in professional baseball. Now he just needs time to develop. He has the potential to be a well-rounded everyday player.

13. Jacob Nix, RHP
Age: 21
2017 Highest Level: AAA
2017 Mid-Season #14
It doesn’t show up on Baseball-Reference, but Jacob Nix did pitch in Triple-A in 2017. In Game 4 of the PCL Championship Series Nix scattered 7 hits in 6.2 innings. I know this because I was there. The fact he gave up 7 hits wasn’t impressive, but the fact that he worked around them and only gave up 1 run was.

14. Austin Allen, C
Age: 23
2017 Highest Level: A+
2017 Mid-Season #17
Allen cooled off a bit toward the end of last season, but overall he’s looked really good and there’s a chance he could reach the big leagues in 2018. It’s an outside shot, and it’s doubtful he’d make a fantasy impact. But there’s a shot.

15. Jorge Ona, OF
Age: 21
2017 Highest Level: A
2017 Mid-Season #15
Evaluators have some concerns about his swing and he doesn’t always take good routes on fly balls, but Ona has performed well at the levels he’s played at.

16. Josh Naylor, 1B
Age: 21
2017 Highest Level: AA, Arizona Fall League
2017 Mid-Season #16
He has a very real potential to be an every day first baseman one day and he impressed in the Arizona Fall League, earning a spot on the Fall Stars team. The “prank” where he cut his roommate with a knife makes one wonder about his maturity.

17. Luis Campusano, C
Age: 19
2017 Highest Level: Rookie
2017 Mid-Season #18
Campusano performed well in his first season of professional baseball. That combined with the fact that the upper level of the Padres’ Minor League system is full of catchers who hit their ceiling and are fringey big leaguers and Austin Hedges was not the man the Padres hoped for in 2017 might provide Luis a path to the big leagues.

18. Kyle McGrath, RHP
Age: 25
2017 Highest Level: MLB
2017 Mid-Season #25
Was very effective in the big leagues posting a WHIP of 1.053 and an ERA of 2.84 in 19 innings. Obviously sample size matters, but his minor league sample also had fantastic numbers.

19. Hudson Potts, 3B
Age: 19
2017 Highest Level: A
2017 Pre-Season #38
Potts showed off outstanding power for an 18-year-old in full season A ball, but his hitting still needs some developing. Overall he’s ahead of schedule and could be an impact bat in a few years.

20. Luis Almanzar, SS
Age: 18
2017 Highest Level: A-
2017 Mid-Season #20
Almanzar struggled in his first season of pro ball, but his athleticism will allow him to develop quickly.

21. Esteury Ruiz, 2B
Age: 18
2017 Highest Level: Rookie
2017 Mid-Season #21
The toolsy Ruiz excelled in rookie league ball in 2017. Expect continued success in 2018 though an initial dip would be expected.

22. Chris Paddack, RHP
Age: 21
2017 Highest Level: Did Not Play / A Ball in 2016
2017 Mid-Season #21
Paddack missed all of 2017 but with his projectable frame and talent he looks to be a middle of the rotation kind of guy.

23. Mason Thompson, RHP
Age: 19
2017 Highest Level: A
2017 Mid-Season #23
Health concerns are the biggest hurdle for the 6’7″ Thompson. The tall Texan has still seen limited action in professional baseball but has a high ceiling.

24. Trey Wingenter, RHP
Age: 24
2017 Highest Level: AAA
2017 Mid-Season: Unranked
Another guy who pitched in Triple-A last year even though a quick glance at baseball-reference won’t tell you that. He’s 6’7″ and hit 100 MPH this season and I didn’t see any control issues when I saw him pitch. Big League debut in 2018? I’d bet on it.

25. Andres Munoz, RHP
Age: 18
2017 Highest Level: A, Arizona Fall League
2017 Mid-Season: Unranked
Happy birthday Andres! He’ll be turning 19 (on January 16th) right around the time this gets published and he has plenty to celebrate. His 2017 campaign put him on the map and he turned in a 0.692 WHIP and 1.04 ERA in the AFL to cap things off.

26. Edward Olivares, OF
Age: 21
2017 Highest Level: A+
2017 Mid-Season: Unranked2018 Toronto Blue Jays: #15
The Padres just acquired Olivares from the Blue Jays, along with RHP, Jared Carkuff in exchange for Yangervis Solarte.  Olivares had a breakout season in 2017 and is looking to build on that success in 2018. Toolsy and athletic Olivares could rise through the system rather quickly, though his ascension to the big leagues could be blocked by the Padre talent at the big league and Triple-A level.





Tier 4

27. Jerry Keel, LHP
Age: 24
2017 Highest Level: AA, Arizona Fall League
2017 Mid-Season: 29
He wasn’t impressive in the AFL but he was chosen. I might put too much stock in that but I see it as an indicator that the Padres see a big league future for him.

28. Gabriel Arias, SS
Age: 17
2017 Highest Level: A
2017 Mid-Season: 40
After recording 9 errors in his first 194 innings at shortstop in 2017 Arias got it together and committed only two more errors in his next 195 innings. The glove plays.

29. Brad Wieck, LHP
Age: 25
2017 Highest Level: AAA, Arizona Fall League
2017 Mid-Season: 29
Wieck had a rough AFL and a rough Triple-A experience. Now 26, he needs to have it come together at those higher levels. He has the make-up and the frame to do it. Wieck was added to the Padres 40-Man Roster in November in order to protect him from the Rule 5 draft and he performed well in Double-A in 2017. This could be his year.

30. Blake Hunt, C
Age: 19
2017 Highest Level: A
2017 Mid-Season #24
Fast pop time and bat pop as well. The Padres appear to believe Hunt could be a big league catcher for a long time. Keep in mind they drafted Campusano before him, so it stands to reason that he’ll need to prove he’s the better catching prospect.

31. Mason House, OF
Age: 19
2017 Highest Level: Rookie
2017 Mid-Season: 30
House hit .293 in first season of professional baseball. It looks like he answered some of the questions spawning from a lack of highly competitive pitching in his High School career.

32. Christian Villanueva, 1B/3B
Age: 26
2017 Highest Level: MLB
2017 Mid-Season: Unranked
Villanueva is really good at baseball. He’s often overlooked nowadays, probably because he’s been playing professionally for so long. But he hit .344 (11 for 32 with 4 HRs and 10 strikeouts) when given a shot with the Padres. If your league has any real depth then someone has to own him.

33. Michael Gettys, OF
Age: 22
2017 Highest Level: A+
2017 Mid-Season: 27
Led the CAL League in strikeouts with 191. The guy who came in second almost had 50 more ABs than him. It’s a pretty disconcerting stat, but he’s always been a defense first guy with an outstanding throwing arm.

34. Sam Keating, RHP
Age: 19
2017 Highest Level: Rookie
2017 Mid-Season: 31
Keating only threw 18+ innings in Rookie ball last season so the numbers can’t be trusted. He’s 6’3″, 190 pounds and he’s hit 94 MPH with his fastball so there’s something there.

35. Reggie Lawson, RHP
Age: 20
2017 Highest Level: A
2017 Mid-Season: 31
The 2016 2nd rounder hasn’t posted great numbers in professional baseball but he’s been playing older competition and is in the early stages of his development.

36. Eguy Rosario, 2B/3B
Age: 18
2017 Highest Level: A
2017 Mid-Season: 33
The organization threw him into the deepish end (A ball) to start 2017 and Rosario only managed a .206 average in 50 games. After being reassigned to the AZL he played another 50 games and hit .286 there.

37. Kyle Lloyd, RHP
Age: 27
2017 Highest Level: MLB
2017 Mid-Season: 36
Lloyd is officially a big leaguer. Both his Triple-A and MLB numbers are a bit unattractive but he’s doing well in the Mexican Pacific Winter League and he’s got the build to be a productive big leaguer.

38. Jose Castillo, LHP
Age: 22
2017 Highest Level: AA, WBC
2017 Mid-Season: Unranked
Struck out Christian Yelich and Nolan Arenado consecutively in the WBC. Was recently added to the Padres 40-Man Roster. He could be a meaningful addition to a deep fantasy league.

39. Franmil Reyes, OF
Age: 22
2017 Highest Level: AA, AFL
2017 Mid-Season: Unranked
Led all Padres minor leaguers in home runs with 25, while hitting for a respectable average (.258). The 6’5″, 240 pound outfielder played a little 1B early in his career but hasn’t played there since 2015.

40. Jordy Barley, SS
Age: 18
2017 Highest Level: Rookie
2017 Mid-Season: 35
Fast with soft hands, good infield range and a plus throwing arm. His hitting needs to improve, but he shows promise there too.

41. Joe Galindo, RHP
Age: 22
2017 Highest Level: A
2017 Mid-Season: 37
Galindo didn’t give up an earned run in 11 games for Tri-City.

42. Javier Guerra, SS
Age: 22
2017 Highest Level: AA, AFL
2017 Mid-Season: 28
Guerra’s stock has fallen, but the Padres took an extended look at him by sending him to the Arizona Fall League. He only hit .261 but that was almost 40 points higher than his 2017 minor league season up to that point.

43. Lake Bachar, RHP
Age: 22
2017 Highest Level: A
2017 Mid-Season: 38
He’s posting good numbers wherever he plays, including his time spent in the Australian Baseball League this season, but something is keeping him at the low levels.

44. Tirso Ornelas, OF
Age: 17
2017 Highest Level: Rookie
2017 Mid-Season: 41
The 6’4″ outfielder hit .276 in his first professional season while walking 40 times.

45. T.J. Weir, RHP
Age: 26
2017 Highest Level: AA, AFL
2017 Mid-Season: Unranked
Hello T.J. Weir! 2.09 ERA in 77+ minor league innings this past year. He’s old for the levels he was playing in, but those results could translate into a big league debut soon. He gave up one earned run in 5.2 Arizona Fall League innings pitched.

46. Ruddy Giron, SS
Age: 20
2017 Highest Level: A+
2017 Mid-Season: 43
He just hasn’t been doing much but the tools are still there for Giron to develop into a big league player. A failed 2018 though would be a significant issue.





Tier 5

47. Adam Cimber, RHP
Age: 22
2017 Highest Level: AAA
2017 Mid-Season: 47
2.92 ERA and a .912 WHIP in 64+ innings at Triple-A last year. When you add his Double-A numbers his stats only get better. Sidearmer with a funky delivery keeps hitter off-balance with a fastball, sinker and slider.

48. Buddy Reed, OF
Age: 22
2017 Highest Level: A
2017 Mid-Season: 42
The speedy Reed put up lackluster numbers in 2017 at A and A- but is hitting .317 in the Australian Baseball League.

49. Walker Lockett, RHP
Age: 22
2017 Highest Level: AAA, AFL
2017 Mid-Season: 46
Injuries continue preventing Lockett from playing a full season but the 6’5″ pitcher has all the tools to get him to the bigs if he can stay healthy.

50. David Bednar, RHP
Age: 23
2017 Highest Level: A+, AFL
2017 Mid-Season: Unranked
Put himself on the radar by posting a 1.87 ERA in A-Ball this season. Then pitched well enough in the California League to get invited to the Arizona Fall League where he gave up only 1 earned run in 8 innings.

and one more…
51. Brad Zunica, 1B
Age: 21
2017 Highest Level: A
2017 Mid-Season: 45
His strikeouts decreased a little and his power numbers went up. Zunica could be on an upward trajectory.

 

 

 

About Eric 16 Articles
Eric Killian is an Army Officer who covers the San Diego Padres for Prospects1500. He is a longtime baseball fan and collector whose collecting inspired him to learn all he can about up-and-coming players. He recently relocated from Sierra Vista, AZ., to El Paso, TX. Follow him on Twitter @USKillian

13 Comments

  1. I really don’t understand why you have Tatis at 4 and in Tier 2. He’s sort of a consensus top-10 (if not 5) overall prospect, certainly higher than Quantrill, Urias, and Gore. Can you explain more on why you have him so low besides the fact that he was ranked lower last year?

  2. Seems that many already don’t agree with your assessment of Tatis. Although BA hasn’t posted their top 100 for 2018 yet, they have him ranked as San Diego’s #1 prospect. For lists, Razzball has him ranked #6 overall, Dynasty Guru has him ranked #10 overall and baseballhaven.com has him ranked #13 overall.

    • I’m not going to speak for Eric on Tatis but here’s what I wrote on Reddit earlier today. I think Tatis is Tier 1, but you can’t really be wrong putting him at the top of Tier 2. He’s young and is going to be very good. I’ll tell you right now I’m not putting Chavis or Groome in Tier 1 on my Red Sox Top 50 (at least not right now, I could change my mind by next weekend) but some will argue that they should be. Again, it’s all debatable guys. I honestly don’t think Tatis is on my Top 10 overall but probably more along the lines of 15-25.

      • I don’t think it’s egregious to give Groome or Chavis Tier 2 rankings, like you said it’s debatable, but it’s better to provide some explanations beyond what their rankings were last year. I just can’t think of a good reason not to rank Tatis either 1 or 2, let alone in Tier 1.

  3. What happened to Hudson Potts? I think he, Tatis and one other guy were the only teenagers to hit 20 HRs in all of baseball. I think Keith Law is going to be in line with industry on Tatis this spring.
    Thanks for the deep lists.

  4. In terms of fantasy, it’s strange to have Urias as the second ranked prospect. He hits for average, but no homeruns or stolen bases. He’ll be an average MI or average super utility guy. Better baseball player than fantasy player.

  5. Interesting list and I appreciate your prespective as you are going with MLB ready over potential.

    I mean if only we all lived up to the potential we had as 18 or 19 year olds like we expect from these prospects…am I right?

    Probably just an oversight on Hudson Potts but I believe most people quoting other web site’s rankings are doing your article a disservice.

    So I thank you sir for you ACTUAL service and I look forward to your midseason rankings to compare.

    • Hey thanks for the comment and support. A lot of the other comments definitely gave me some things to think about so I’m really interested in seeing how the season goes, and how the next few seasons go.

4 Trackbacks / Pingbacks

  1. Sunday January 14, 2018 - Fantasy Baseball Links - FantasyRundown.com
  2. Adam Cimber Makes the Padres Opening Day Roster | Prospects1500
  3. Buddy Reed On The Rise | Prospects1500
  4. 2018 MLB Draft Link Round-Up | Prospects1500

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