This is my personal projection of how this year’s first round will unfold.
1) Minnesota Twins: Brendan McKay 1B/LHP: The Twins have also been connected to Kyle Wright at this spot but I think they’ll go with McKay at this spot and develop him as a pitcher. In my eyes, though Greene has by far the highest ceiling in this draft. McKay should be a relatively safe pick.The last time the Twins had the #1 overall pick they drafted an all-star in Joe Mauer.
2) Cincinnati Reds: Hunter Greene RHP: The Reds will most likely take Greene unless the Twins reverse course and choose Greene and then, in that case, the Reds will select McKay; and if they do they also like him as a pitcher as opposed to with the bat.
3) San Diego Padres: Mackenzie Gore LHP: I believe that the Padres will most likely go with Gore if Greene doesn’t manage to fall ton them. Gore is a very highly regarded prospect and I believe he will have a bright future in the Big Leagues but he may take awhile to develop but the ceiling is fairly high.
4) Tampa Bay Rays: Kyle Wright RHP: The Rays could also take Lewis with this pick but I believe the most likely scenario is them taking Wright if he’s available with their pick. He has the chance to go #1 overall to the Twins and he would deserve it. If Wright can refine his control then he has the upside to be a top of the rotation pitcher and unlike most college arms he still has a bit of projection remaining.
5) Atlanta Braves: Royce Lewis SS/OF: The Braves have one of the best farms in baseball and stand to add another really good piece to their farm. A hitter would make the most sense here for the Braves because of the fact that their farm is incredibly deep when it comes to pitching. I also think that Lewis could be a guy who signs for less than the slot value which would allow the Braves to be aggressive when it comes to their other selections.
6) Oakland Athletics: Adam Hasely OF: Hasely has shown that he can hit very well and his average has hovered around the .400 range for most of his Junior season. He’s also starting to show more power and I think he’d be a really good fit for Oakland here at 6.
7) Arizona Diamondbacks: Pavin Smith 1B: To be honest it could be a number of guys who are drafted here and it’s possible that Hasely could go here instead of Smith. But I think Smith makes some sense here because he’s a very good bat and he’s incredibly hard to strikeout and could be a really solid pick for the Diamondbacks despite the presence of Goldschmidt.
8) Philadelphia Phillies: J.B Bukauskas RHP: This would be a solid pick for the Phillies because they’d get a high-quality young arm to add to their ranks. If the Diamondbacks don’t take Smith expect him to be at play at this spot for the Phillies.
>9) Milwaukee Brewers: Jordon Adell OF: Adell quite possibly has the best tools in this years draft but there is some concern about his bat which has hurt his stock a bit. He has been compared to players such as Byron Buxton and Melvin Upton Jr both players who went #2 in their drafts. Adell could be a steal at this point if he can put it all together.
10) Los Angeles Angels: Jeren Kendall OF: I have seen a few reports to suggest that the White Sox could make more sense for him and they could if he falls to them. Kendall has seen his stock fall a bit in recent months which is why he’s available at this point but I believe that he may have the highest upside of all the players available at this point in the draft and the Angels could use some upside in their depleted system so Kendall makes some sense with this pick.
11) Chicago White Sox: Austin Beck OF: This may be too low for Beck since he could go as high as #6 with Oakland. But if he falls to this point I think it would be hard for the White Sox to pass on him and he has a pretty good ceiling if he can put everything together with his bat.
12) Pittsburgh Pirates: Nick Pratto 1B: There is some thought that the Pirates could take a college bat here I think Pratto makes perfect sense for them since he’s fairly advanced for his age and has hit for average. He also should develop into at least average in-game power which could make him a very valuable bat to have in the near future.
13) Miami Marlins: Alex Faedo RHP: Faedo could go earlier than this by a few picks but he makes sense here for the Marlins. He was once considered to be in the conversation for the #1 overall pick but knee surgery has seen his stock fall a bit since it contributed to him having a slow start to the 2017 season. But I believe the upside here is huge.
14) Kansas City Royals: D.L Hall RHP: There has been chatter about the Royals being linked to a prep arm and Hall here makes sense for them. He’s not the biggest guy out there and he definitely won’t overpower guys like some other pitchers are capable of doing but he has room to grow and add some strength as he matures.
15) Houston Astros: Shane Baz RHP: If Baz manages to make it here for the Astros that would be a win for them as he’s a very highly regarded prep arm and he could actually go a few spots higher than this. He has good command and a good makeup and has a good presence on the mound.
16) New York Yankees Griffin Canning RHP: Canning would be a solid pick for New York here. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff but he has a good feel for pitching which can lead to him being successful in the Majors. I think he has the upside of a mid-rotation starter.
17) Seattle Mariners: Jake Burger 3B: Burger is one of the better sources of power in this class and he has a really good feel for hitting. He makes steady contact for a slugger which will help him hit for a more respectable average than most. Despite his size, he has average speed out of the batter’s box.
18) Detroit Tigers: Evan White 1B: Some teams like White more than Pavin Smith because of his top notch defense at 1B and because of the possibility that he can move to the outfield in the future. He’s very athletic for a 1B which bodes well for him and although power isn’t his best tool at this stage he should develop some more power as he adds strength to his frame.
19) San Francisco Giants: Trevor Rogers LHP: Rogers would be a good fit for the Giants in my mind. He’s a big lefty at 6’6 and he manages to get velocity on his fastball relatively easily and he also has a solid delivery.
20) New York Mets: Nate Pearson RHP: Pearson has been rising up draft boards recently and I may have him way too low but that remains to be seen. He may not be cheap because he’s already committed to LSU so he could be a tough sign. But he has massive upside since he’s able to reach 100 MPH on a consistent basis with an upper 80’s slider.
21) Baltimore Orioles: Heliot Ramos OF: The reports on Ramos are all over the map with some scouts thinking he’s a legitimate first-round talent while others see him as more of an option in the 2nd round. But I think he’ll land with the Orioles because he has some good power potential and that’s the type of bat that the Orioles like.
22) Toronto Blue Jays: Logan Warmoth SS: Warmoth is the best college SS in this class and while he doesn’t have any standout tools he doesn’t have any massive flaws either. He should be able to grow into double digit pop in the majors if everything breaks well. He’ll be given a chance to try to stay at SS as a pro but if that doesn’t work out he will probably end up at 2B.
23) Los Angeles Dodgers: Keston Hiura 2B/OF: Hiura would probably go much higher if not for injury concerns and concerns about where he may play defensively. Some scouts believe he may ultimately need Tommy John surgery which would slow down his developmental timetable but he could be worth the risk at this spot for the Dodgers because of the obvious upside he presents.
24) Boston Red Sox: Tanner Houck RHP: Houck has one of the best fastballs in this year’s class and he has even drawn comparisons to Max Scherzer which is a lofty expectation for anyone to try to live up to. He’s also able to fill the zone with strikes which should help him remain consistent and he would be a very good pick here for the Red Sox.
25) Washington Nationals: Seth Romero LHP: Romero has been dogged by makeup concerns and some teams have said they wouldn’t draft him in the first round but he has the talent to be able to make the Nationals forget about those concerns and hope they can turn him around and add another high-quality pitcher that fell down draft boards due to one concern or another.
26) Texas Rangers: David Peterson LHP: Peterson is a name who I could see going much higher than this if everything breaks right for him. He has a durable build that should help him stay on the field. He also has great control which has helped him keep his walk rate very low and he is looking like one of the better college pitchers in the draft and could make for a very good pick wherever he lands.
27) Chicago Cubs: Sam Carlson RHP: Carlson is a very good prep arm who should fill out nicely as he matures. I believe he’s the perfect fit for the Cubs here because he gives them some upside later in the draft and would be a very good addition to their farm if he manages to fall this far to them.
28) Toronto Blue Jays: Gavin Sheets 1B: Sheets could go higher than this but he could also go significantly lower than this. Once you get past Smith, White and McKay the field starts to become muddied and anything can happen.
29) Texas Rangers: Tristen Lutz OF: Lutz is a risky pick here but he has some good power and could be worth the risk for Texas. He may add more power as he matures and possibly modifies his stance in order to add more loft to his swing. Lutz could be one of the sneakier picks in the first round if everything breaks right for him.
30) Chicago Cubs: Clarke Schmidt RHP: Once again I have the Cubs taking a risk on a player because at this stage of the first round they can afford to take a risk on another player in hopes of striking gold. He won’t pitch for awhile because he just underwent Tommy John surgery but if he can come back from it then he has a really good chance of being able to be a key cog in the Cubs farm.
Top 150 Draft-Eligible Prospects
Today is the day that many of us have been waiting for. The day that MLB teams have been preparing for since the last pick of the 2016 draft was called. This is the event that every prospect obsessed fan like me looks forward to year-round. So this is a perfect time for me to list my top 150 prospects in the draft this year. This list will be based purely on talent and not on where I think a player will be drafted.
Hunter Greene – RHP
Kyle Wright – RHP
Brendan McKay – LHP/1B
Mackenzie Gore – LHP
Royce Lewis – SS/OF
Austin Beck – OF
Adam Haseley – OF
Alex Faedo – RHP
Pavin Smith – 1B
Jeren Kendall – OF
J.B Bukauskas – RHP
Nick Pratto – 1B
Jordon Adell – OF
Shane Baz – RHP
Sam Carlson – RHP
Tanner Houck – RHP
David Peterson – LHP
Evan White – 1B
Jake Burger – 3B
Keston Hiura – OF/2B
D.L Hall – LHP
Griffin Canning – RHP
Logan Warmoth – SS
Trevor Rogers – LHP
Bubba Thompson – OF
Alex Lange – RHP
Seth Romero – LHP
Tristen Lutz – OF
Nate Pearson – RHP
Nick Allen – SS
Heliot Ramos – OF
Gavin Sheets – 1B
Matt Sauer – RHP
Corbin Martin – RHP
Quentin Holmes – OF
Hans Crouse – RHP
Blayne Enlow – RHP
Tanner Burnes – RHP
Clarke Schmidt – RHP
Tristan Beck – RHP
Jeter Downs – SS
Brendon Little – LHP
Chris Seise – SS
Wil Crowe – RHP
Ryan Vilade – 3B
Hagen Danner – RHP/C
Drew Waters – OF
Jacob Heatherly – LHP
Evan Skoug – C
Garrett Mitchell – OF
Steven Jennings – RHP
Stuart Fairchild – OF
Daulton Varsho – C
Conner Uselton – OF
Brent Rooker – 1B
Alex Scherff – RHP
J.J. Matijevic – 1B
Kevin Merrell – SS
Jacob Pearson – OF
Blaine Knight – RHP
Drew Ellis 3B/1B
James Marinan – RHP
Jake Eder – LHP
Greg Deichmann – OF
Daniel Cabrera – OF
KJ Harrison – 1B
Luis Campusano – C
Mark Vuebtis – 3B
Cole Brannen – OF
Brian Miller – OF
Bryce Bonnin – RHP
Jake Thompson – RHP
Matt Tabot – RHP
Riley Adams – C
Kevin Smith – SS
Brady McConnell – SS
MJ Melendez – C
Bryce Montes De Oca – RHP
Michael Mercado – RHP
Caden Lemons – RHP
Blake Hunt – C
Calvin Mitchell 0 OF
Kyle Hurt – RHP
Shane Drohan – LHP
Will Gaddis – RHP
Greg Jones – SS
Daniel Tillo – LHP
Mason House – OF
Taylor Walls – SS
Peter Solomon – RHP
Joe Perez – RHP
Zach Pop – RHP
Jeremiah Estrada – RHP
Glenn Otto – RHP
Jake Magnum – OF
Spencer Howard – RHP
Michael Gigliotti – OF
Chris McMahon – RHP
Morgan Cooper – RHP
Trevor Stephan – RHP
Luis Gonzalez – OF
Zach Rutherford – SS
Garrett Cave – RHP
Tyler Johnson – RHP
Drew Rasmussen – RHP
Landon Leach – RHP
Matt Whatley – C
Adam Hall – SS
Seth Corry – LHP
Riley Ottesen – RHP
Michael Baumann – RHP
Kyle Jacobsen – OF
Tony Dibrell – RHP
Ernie Clement – SS
Connor Wong – C
Sam McMillian – C
Jackson Rutledge – RHP
Gavin Williams – RHP
C.J. Van Eyk – RHP
Carmen Mlodzinski – RHP
Jordan Anderson – OF
Jacob Gonzalez 3B/1B
Joe Dunland – SS
Zac Lowther – LHP
Colton Hock – RHP
Asa Lacy – LHP
Cade Cavalli – RHP
Jared Oliva – OF
Devin Hairston – SS
Daniel Ritcheson – RHP
Jake Holmes – SS
Adam Oviedo – SS
Donovan Casey – OF
Zach Jackson – C
Keegan Thompson – RHP
Joey Morgan – C
Kyle Johnston – RHP
Joe Lancellotti – RHP
Tyler Freeman – 2B
Andrew Bechtold – 3B
Chris Williams – C
Jordan Spicer – RHP
Dalton Guthrie – SS
Seth Lonsway – LHP
Charlie Barnes – LHP
Reynaldo Rivero – 1B
David Parkinson – LHP
Evan Steele – LHP
Keith Rogalla – RHP
Hugh Fisher – LHP
*Luke Heimlich would rank in the 100-110 range had it not been for his disturbing off-field issues.
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